INDONESIANTALK.COM – Capital Sensitivity Analysis Index (CSA Index) for January 2025 shows a significant increase, with the index standing at 84.2 (January 6, 2024).
This increase reflects investor optimism driven by expectations of the January Effect, a phenomenon that often triggers a surge in stock market buying activity at the beginning of the year. This is anticipated to push the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) to higher levels.
The optimism has been ongoing since August 2024, supported by several domestic economic indicators that reinforce positive market sentiment.
Nevertheless, the IHSG’s movement continues to face various challenges from both domestic and global factors.
Supporting Factors and Challenges for the IHSG
One key policy under the spotlight is the cancellation of the planned increase in Value-Added Tax (VAT) to 12%.
This move has been well-received by the market, although its impact is still limited by uncertainties surrounding derivative policies.
Additionally, controlled inflation and a positive Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in December 2024 further bolster Indonesia’s economic stability.
Rupiah volatility is another factor influencing the IHSG. Currency depreciation has varying effects, benefiting export-oriented sectors such as agriculture, mining, and manufacturing. However, this depreciation also presents a challenge for Bank Indonesia in setting interest rate policies.
With inflation under control, the likelihood of a benchmark interest rate cut remains open, although the rupiah’s weakening could be a limiting factor.
On the global front, heightened geopolitical tensions and a slowing global economy contribute negative sentiment, though domestic optimism continues to dominate.
IHSG Targets and Key Sectors
In January 2025, the IHSG is projected to reach 7,532, representing a 5.87% increase compared to its December 2024 closing at 7,079.
This target reflects a more realistic expectation compared to earlier projections, which had reached 8,243 in October 2024.
The CSA Index also identifies key sectors expected to drive the IHSG.
The financial sector remains the primary choice for market participants, in line with trends from recent months. Its high market capitalization and stability position it as the main engine for the IHSG’s movement.
The energy sector also continues to be a focus, offering attractive investment opportunities at the start of the year.
NS Aji Martono, Chairman of PROPAMI, expressed optimism regarding the January 2025 CSA Index results.
“The January 2025 CSA Index indicates that market participants are optimistic about the potential January Effect. This optimism is expected to act as a positive catalyst to boost stock market activity at the start of the year and strengthen the IHSG’s fundamentals in facing global challenges,” said Aji Martono.
CSA Index Survey Methodology
The CSA Index is compiled by the CSA Institute in collaboration with the Indonesian Association of Securities Analysts (AAEI) through a questionnaire survey involving all AAEI members and CSA Institute alumni.
Data was collected from December 16 to 31, 2024, and subsequently verified to ensure the validity and objectivity of the results.
Additionally, in-depth interviews with market participants were conducted to gain clearer insights into their confidence levels and IHSG projections.
The CSA Index also reflects market perspectives on the performance of leading sectors and IHSG targets for the next 12 months.
These results are expected to serve as an important reference for market participants in planning their investment strategies.
About CSA Institute and AAEI
The CSA Institute is a competency-based training institution focused on certifications in the financial services industry, such as Certified Securities Analyst (CSA) and Certified Technical Analyst (CTA).
The institution is also registered with the National Professional Certification Agency (BNSP) through the Capital Market Certification Agency (LSPPM).
The Indonesian Association of Securities Analysts (AAEI), a nonprofit organization established in 2001, remains committed to enhancing the competencies of its members through seminars, training, and various other activities relevant to the capital market.
