The Capital Sensitivity Analysis (CSA) Index for April 2025 has plunged to 41.7, marking its lowest level in the past year and drifting further away from the neutral benchmark of 50. The figure signals growing market pessimism regarding the short-term outlook for the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IHSG). The data was collected between March 17 and March 31, 2025.
This latest decline continues a downward trend that began earlier in the year. After standing at 47.6 in March 2025, the index has come under sustained pressure amid persistent negative sentiments both globally and domestically.
Domestically, inflation data released by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) in March 2025 raised concerns over consumer purchasing power. Monthly inflation stood at 1.65% (mtm), while annual inflation was only 1.03% (yoy)—well below the target. This signals weak domestic demand, even during the typically high-consumption Ramadan period.
On the global front, escalating trade tensions between the United States and China have continued to fuel volatility. The Trump administration’s aggressive tariff policies are creating considerable uncertainty in global markets. At the same time, U.S. inflation remains above expectations, increasing the likelihood of tighter monetary policies from the Federal Reserve.
Additional domestic concerns include potential fiscal tightening due to government budget cuts, which may reduce stimulus efforts aimed at economic growth. Rising fears over job layoffs (PHK) are also contributing to negative market sentiment.
Despite current market stress, investors are still eyeing opportunities in select sectors. The Financials, Consumer Cyclicals, and Energy sectors were the top picks for April 2025. The resurgence of financials suggests optimism that Bank Indonesia may ease monetary policies to support liquidity and the banking sector’s recovery. Consumer Cyclicals are favored amid expectations of rising consumption ahead of Eid, while the Energy sector remains attractive due to global commodity price dynamics.
Overall, while the CSA Index continues to show a downward trend and market pressure remains elevated, a recovery in the IHSG remains possible—particularly if supported by accommodative monetary policies and improvements in consumer sentiment. However, investor confidence is still fragile and will require stronger signals from both economic fundamentals and policy direction to improve in the coming months.
NS. Aji Martono, Chairman of Propami, commented on the April results, saying, “The April 2025 CSA Index reflects that the market is in need of positive sentiment or stimulus.”
The CSA Index is compiled by the CSA Institute in collaboration with the Indonesian Association of Securities Analysts (AAEI), based on surveys distributed to AAEI members and CSA Institute alumni. The responses, collected in mid-to-late March 2025, were verified through deep interviews to ensure objectivity and to better understand market expectations regarding the IHSG and sectoral opportunities.
