INDONESIANTALK.COM – The Capital Sensitivity Analysis (CSA) Index plunged sharply in July 2025, dropping to 42.6 from 92.3 in the previous month (Jakarta, 77/25).
This drastic decline reflects growing market pessimism driven by global negative sentiment that has triggered high volatility in financial markets.
According to a survey conducted by the CSA Institute between June 16 and 30, 2025, the main pressure came from Moody’s downgrade of the United States’ credit rating, which has heightened concerns over the global economic outlook.
Market sentiment was further weighed down by weak economic data from China, including declining industrial production and retail sales.
The Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain high interest rates added to fears of potential capital outflows from emerging markets, including Indonesia.
Additionally, profit-taking after months of a strong rally in the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) also contributed to domestic market pressure.
Nevertheless, several positive factors continue to offer hope.
Easing global trade tensions and expectations of global interest rate cuts are seen as potential catalysts to revive investor interest.
On the domestic front, Indonesia’s economic fundamentals remain solid. Controlled inflation, stable economic growth, and a resilient Rupiah are believed to support investor confidence.
Selective foreign capital inflows into blue-chip stocks are also expected to help stabilize the market going forward.
Market participants anticipate the JCI will remain under pressure in July 2025, with projections ranging between 6,700 and 7,436.
In the long term, the 12-month JCI consensus target stands between 7,200 and 7,800.
The Energy and Financial sectors are projected to be the main drivers of the JCI this month.
The Energy sector is benefiting from sustained high global commodity prices and strong energy demand, while the Financial sector gains from expectations of global monetary easing and domestic economic stability.
Responding to the July 2025 CSA Index results, Chairman of the Indonesian Capital Market Professionals Association (PROPAMI), NS. Aji Martono, stated that despite the renewed index decline, market players remain hopeful about Indonesia’s domestic economic strength as a source of optimism.
The CSA Index is compiled based on surveys and insights from market professionals affiliated with the Indonesian Security Analysts Association (AAEI) and CSA Institute alumni, and is verified through in-depth interviews to ensure objective and accurate results.
For more information, the CSA Institute can be contacted via email at:
📩 info.aaei.analisefek@gmail.com or info.csainstitute@gmail.com.
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